Religion, Nationalism, and Terror

BBC survey, September 28, 2008, AlQaeda_Sep08_rpt.pdf (application/pdf Object)

US ‘War on Terror’ Has Not Weakened al Qaeda, Says Global Poll, September 28, 2008

The US‘s `war on terror’ has failed to weaken its prime target al Qaeda, according to people in 22 out of 23 countries surveyed in a new poll for the BBC World Service.

On average only 22 per cent believe that al Qaeda has been weakened, while three in five believe that it has either had no effect (29%) or made al Qaeda stronger (30%). And while negative views of al Qaeda are most common in nearly all of the countries surveyed, this is not the case in Egypt and Pakistan – both pivotal nations in the conflict with al Qaeda. In both of these countries far more have either mixed or positive feelings towards al Qaeda (Egypt 40% mixed and 20% positive, Pakistan 22% mixed and 19% positive) than have negative feelings (Egypt 35%, Pakistan 19%).

Asked who is winning the conflict between al Qaeda and the United States, the predominant view of those polled is that neither the US nor al Qaeda is winning, with 15 countries holding this view. In three countries – Kenya, Nigeria and Turkey – the dominant view is that the US is winning. In no country does more than one in five – 21 per cent in Pakistan – believe that al Qaeda is winning. Views are divided in other countries. On average across all 23 countries just 10 per cent think al Qaeda is winning, 22 per cent think the US is winning, and 47 per cent think neither side is winning.

Even in the United States only 34 per cent believe al Qaeda has been weakened. Fifty-nine per cent believe the `war on terror’ has either had no effect (26%) or has made al Qaeda stronger (33%). Meanwhile, 56 per cent believe neither side is winning the conflict; 31 per cent believe that the United States is winning; 8 per cent believe al Qaeda is winning.

Pew Global Attitudes Project: III. Islam, Modernity and Terrorism: The Great Divide: How Westerners and Muslims View Each Other, June 13, 2007

In Jordan, confidence in bin Laden has plummeted since May 2005. A year ago, 25% of Jordanians said they had a lot of confidence in bin Laden to “do the right thing regarding world affairs,” while another 35% said they had some confidence. Today, almost no Jordanians (fewer than 1%) express a lot of confidence in bin Laden, and 24% say they have some confidence in him.

In Pakistan, confidence in bin Laden also has fallen, though not quite as dramatically. In May 2005, a majority of Pakistanis (51%) expressed at least some confidence in bin Laden; that number has declined to 38% in the current survey.

To be sure, bin Laden still has followers in the Muslim world. Fully 61% of Muslims in Nigeria express a lot of confidence (33%) or some confidence (28%) in bin Laden; that represents a significant increase from May 2003 (44%). Bin Laden’s standing in Pakistan has eroded, but more Pakistanis still express at least some confidence in bin Laden than say they have little or no confidence in him (by 38% to 30%). And a third of Indonesians continue to express at least some confidence in the al Qaeda leader.

Among European Muslims, only about one-in-twenty Muslims in Germany and France express even some confidence in bin Laden to do the right thing in world affairs. But that figure rises to 14% among Muslims in Great Britain, and 16% of Spanish Muslims.

THE TRAIN BOMBER Jamal Ahmidan, top left, known to friends as Chino, turned from drug dealing to terror. THE MEN WHO LEFT Clockwise, from top right: In 2006, Bilal Ben Aboud, Muncif Ben Aboud, Abdelmunim Amakchar Elamrani, Hamza Akhlifa and Younes Achbak departed to wage jihad in Iraq.

Andrea Elliott, Where Boys Grow Up to Be Jihadis, New York Times Magazine, November 25, 2007

If there is one outlet for the neighborhood’s wellspring of male energy, it is soccer. In the summer, hundreds of boys gather on bleachers to watch as players glide across a worn, concrete pitch, some of them barefoot. Sitting around the bleachers one afternoon in July, a group of teenagers talked to me about their heroes. They said they worshipped Zinédine Zidane, the Muslim of Algerian descent who conquered the soccer world from France. They loved the Prophet Muhammad. The mere mention of Osama bin Laden elicited a sea of upturned thumbs.

“He’s very courageous,” said Ayman, a short, spunky 13-year-old with honey-colored skin. “Nobody did what he did. He challenges the whole world. He even challenges George Bush.”

Another teenage boy said he would gladly volunteer to fight the American occupation in Iraq if it meant bringing independence to Iraqis. “We want to help our Muslim brothers,” he told me. Of the Americans, he added: “If they kill us, we go to God. If we stay here, there is joblessness.”

Peter Bergen, How Osama Bin Laden Beat George W. Bush, TNR, October 15, 2007

The removal of Saddam Hussein would prove to be a boon to Al Qaeda–creating a base for the terrorist organization where none had existed before, energizing jihadists around the word, and confirming for many Muslims bin Laden’s contention that the United States was at war with Islam….

As the administration’s own 2006 National Intelligence Estimate explains, “[T]he Iraq War has become the [`]cause celebre’ for jihadists … and is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives.”

Poll: Bin Laden tops Musharraf in Pakistan – CNN.com, September 11, 2007

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf — a key U.S. ally — is less popular in his own country than al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, according to a poll of Pakistanis conducted last month by an anti-terrorism organization….

According to poll results, bin Laden has a 46 percent approval rating. Musharraf’s support is 38 percent. U.S. President George W. Bush’s approval: 9 percent.

Asked their opinion on the real purpose of the U.S.-led war on terror, 66 percent of poll respondents said they believe the United States is acting against Islam or has anti-Muslim motivation.