Religion, Nationalism, and Terror

Munson: If only 27% of Iowa’s caucus voters were white evangelicals in 2004, it seems strange that 40% of caucus voters (61% of Republicans) in 2000 thought that a candidate’s relationship to Jesus Christ should play a part in the campaign for the presidential nomination.

Pew Forum, Religion and Politics 2008: Iowa

Iowa voters care deeply about presidential candidates’ individual beliefs. For example, according to a 2000 Los Angeles Times survey (registration required to view webpage), 40% of all Iowa caucus voters thought that a candidate’s relationship with Jesus Christ should play a part in the campaign. For Republican voters, that number jumped to 61%.

The influence of religion on Iowa’s caucuses and elections has grown since the early 1980s. A book co-edited by Pew Forum Senior Fellow John Green notes that in 2000, 40% of GOP caucus participants were evangelical Protestants, the highest percentage ever recorded. In an April 2007 Religion News Service story, one state GOP spokesman estimated that evangelicals and social conservatives account for 50-60% of all Iowa voters.

For Iowa Republicans, particularly evangelical Protestants, religion is a key political factor. In presidential elections since 1984, “the single best predictor of Republican voting is the evangelical population in the county,” according to Green’s book.

In the 1988 caucuses, evangelical religious broadcaster Pat Robertson won a quarter of the Iowa vote, placing him above eventual Republican nominee George H.W. Bush. Robertson’s strong showing surprised political observers. His backing came primarily from conservative Christians, whose concern about moral issues motivated their politics.