Religion, Nationalism, and Terror

Munson: Scheuer ignores the fact that Sunni militias armed by the US have been defeating al-Qaeda in Iraq and bin Laden knows it. Bin Laden can of course portray Iraq as a great victory in the sense that the US is bogged down in a prolonged and ultimately unwinnable war that has intensified the hostility toward the US that facilitates recruitment by militant Islamic groups like al-Qaeda. But the fact remains that Shiite fundamentalists–supported to various degrees by Iran–will continue to control most of Iraq. Such people are fundamentally hostile to the anti-Shiite fundamentalism of Sunni groups like al-Qaeda in Iraq, which have absolutely no chance of ever taking control of the Iraqi government. Al-Qaeda’s vision of a Wahhabi state in Iraq is as chimerical as the Bush administration’s vision of a docile pro-American state that would serve as a model of “the new Middle East.”

Scheuer, Bin Laden talks of victory, not defeat, Asia Times Online, November 22, 2007

Nearly a month since Osama bin Laden published his message to “our people in Iraq”, it is worth taking a look at what bin Laden really said versus what the media, Western leaders and some prematurely mirthful pundits claim he said.

In the most obvious sense, bin Laden’s October 23 statement is a post-Iraq war statement and a further development of Ayman al-Zawahiri’s 2005 message to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the now dead leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq. From al-Qaeda’s perspective, the war is over and Islam has won; Washington’s announcement last week that it intends to begin the withdrawal of 3,000 troops, as well as the US Congress’ recess without renewing war funding, will bolster this perception. Bin Laden’s message is, however, a warning to all Iraqi mujahideen - Sunni and Shi’ite - that the hardest task is yet to come: namely, the creation of an Islamist state in Iraq.

Bin Laden’s October 23 message builds on the July 2005 letter from Zawahiri to Zarqawi. At that time, Zawahiri told Zarqawi that the mujahideen had beaten the US-led coalition and urged him to prepare for US withdrawal, which might, he added, be “precipitous”. Bin Laden’s October message mirrors Zawahiri’s in concluding that the US coalition has been beaten, and in stating that the only unknown is the precise moment of its withdrawal.

There is nothing in bin Laden’s statement that criticizes the mujahideen for not fighting well - indeed, he refers to “magnificent victories” that make Americans “prisoners of their bases and the Green Zone” - much less anything that suggests they are losing. “The world has stood stunned, amazed, delighted and wonder-struck” over the Iraqi mujahideen’s effectiveness and perseverance, the al-Qaeda chief said.